The Palm Beach Post

Drought's return to South Florida may be imminent

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Updated: 5:40 a.m. Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2012

Posted: 10:28 p.m. Monday, Jan. 16, 2012

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/weather-news/droughts-return-to-south-florida-may-be-imminent-2105884.html

If you thought last year was dry, this dry season is leaving that record-busting parchfest in the dust.

And that could push Palm Beach County back into official drought territory next month, forecasters warned Monday.

"We could be there as early as mid- to late February," said Barry Baxter, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Miami. "We are drier than last year."

Only 2.23 inches of rain have fallen at Palm Beach International Airport since Nov. 1, compared with 9.8 inches normally and 3.07 inches at this point last year.

That means 27 percent less rain than last year's dry season, which was the stingiest on record going back at least eight decades.

The dry conditions bring a heightened risk of brush fires and the prospect of tighter watering restrictions.

For now, the South Florida Water Management District has declared a water shortage warning to "encourage continued vigilance and voluntary water conservation."

Under the district's year-round watering policy, residents and businesses with an odd-numbered street address may water lawns and landscapes before 10 a.m. or after 4 p.m. on Mondays, Wednesdays and Saturdays.

Others may water on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. Some local ordinances may vary.

Eight inches of rain in a wet October marked a promising start to the dry season. Lake Okeechobee and underground reservoirs are in better shape than they were last year at this time, Baxter said, but the advantage is drying up.

As early as Thursday, the area could earn a "D0," or "abnormally dry" designation, the last stop before "D1," or the start of formal drought conditions, Baxter said.

Conditions in the Pacific Ocean known as La Niña mean a high-pressure system has tended to hover over Florida and deflect moisture-bearing fronts, Baxter said. Things are likely to stay drier than usual through May, he said.

"The risk of wildfires will be increasing as we go through the dry season," Baxter said.

On Jan. 3, Lake Okeechobee stood at 13.65 feet above sea level, more than a foot below its historical average for that day but a foot above the previous year's 12.43. The lake serves as a water reserve important for agriculture as well as residents.

On Monday, the lake level was 13.44 feet, according to the water management district's website.

In December, the Army Corps of Engineers released water from Lake Okeechobee to shore up the Caloosahatchee Estuary. At the time, the lake was at 13.78 feet above sea level and had been stable for many weeks, the corps said.

The year before, the lake stood at 12.52 feet, compared with a historical average of 14.73 feet for that time.

There's not much relief in the forecast. A 20 percent chance of rain Wednesday night in the greater West Palm Beach area represents the most significant chance in the seven-day forecast.