News Press

October 5, 2014

 

New gov poll: Scott leads Crist by 3

By Kevin Lollar

 

http://www.news-press.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/05/new-gov-poll-scott-leads-crist-by-3/16767953/

 

In a race that's likely to go down to the wire, incumbent Florida Gov. Rick Scott holds a slender 3 percentage-point lead over Democratic challenger Charlie Crist in a fresh poll released today.

 

The YouGov/CBS News/New York Times online survey finds Scott leading Crist 47-44 percent, when leaners are included. Without leaners, Scott leads 44-40 percent.

 

Additionally, "others" receives 1 percent and 8 percent are not sure. Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie was not offered as an option.

 

YouGov surveyed 5,689 likely voters online from Sept. 20-Oct. 1. The margin of error is +/-1.7 percent.

 

Meanwhile, The News-Press forecast model finds there's a 52.2 percent probability that Scott will defeat Crist in November; essentially a coin flip. The incumbent is predicted to squeak out a 47.2-47.0 percent victory in November.

 

Other YouGov findings:

 

90 percent say they will definitely vote; 10 percent say they're likely to vote.

41 percent say they will vote on Election Day; 24 percent will early vote; 30 percent will vote by mail; and 5 percent weren't sure.

70 percent say their minds are made up; 30 percent say they could vote for a different candidate.