National Science
Foundation
Press Release 11-249
New Projection Shows Global Food Demand Doubling
by 2050
Increasing
yield in poorer countries could decrease adverse environmental effects
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=122293&WT.mc_id=USNSF_51&WT.mc_ev=click
Global
food demand could double by 2050, according to a new projection reported this
week in the journal Proceedings of the
The
analysis also shows that the world faces major environmental challenges unless
agricultural practices change.
Scientists
David Tilman and Jason Hill of the University of
Minnesota (UMN) and colleagues found that producing the amount of food needed
could significantly increase levels of carbon dioxide and nitrogen in the
environment, and may cause the extinction of numerous species.
These
problems can be avoided, the researchers say, if the high-yielding technologies
of wealthier nations are adapted to work in poorer nations, and if all
countries use nitrogen fertilizers more efficiently.
In
their paper, the scientists explore various ways of meeting the demand for
food, and their environmental effects.
The
options, they found, are to increase productivity on existing agricultural
land, clear more land, or a combination of both.
They
also consider various scenarios in which the amount of nitrogen use, land
cleared, and resulting greenhouse gas emissions differ.
"Agriculture's
greenhouse gas emissions could double by 2050 if current trends in global food
production continue," Tilman said. "This
would be a major problem, since global agriculture already accounts for a third
of all greenhouse gas emissions."
"Ever
increasing global demands for food pit environmental health against human
prosperity," said Saran Twombly, program
director in the National Science Foundation (NSF)'s Division of Environmental
Biology, which funded the research.
"These assessments
show that agricultural intensification, through improved agronomic practices
and technology transfer, best ensure the latter with minimal costs to the
former," Twombly said.
"The
results challenge wealthy nations to invest technologically in underyielding nations to alter the current global
trajectory of agricultural expansion," she believes. "Identifying the
economic and political incentives needed to realize this investment is the
critical next step."
The
environmental effects of meeting the demand for food depend on how global
agriculture expands.
The
research shows that adopting nitrogen-efficient "intensive" farming
can meet future global food demand with much lower environmental effects, vs.
the "extensive" farming practiced by many poor nations, which clears
land to produce more food.
The
potential benefits are great, the researchers believe.
In
2005, crop yields for the wealthiest nations were more than 300 percent higher
than yields for the poorest nations.
"Strategically
intensifying crop production in developing and least-developed nations would
reduce the overall environmental harm caused by food production, as well as
provide a more equitable food supply across the globe," said Hill.
If
poorer nations continue current practices, they will clear a land area larger
than the
"Our
analyses show that we can save most of the Earth's remaining ecosystems,"
said Tilman, "by helping the poorer nations of
the world feed themselves."
Scientists
Christian Balzer of the
-NSF-